On 7 November 1885, David Smith – subsequently Lord Strathcona and Mount Royal – drove the last spike of Canada’s transcontinental railway at Craigellachie, BC. In fact, Smith actually drove the penultimate spike. His initial attempt bent what was to have been the last piece of iron in the 3,200 km of track. After being partly used to make jewellery, what remains of it is stored in the National Library and Archives in Ottawa.

Most of the 30,000 workers, who had laboured over four and half years, were let go immediately on completion of the project. They were, sadly, left to find their own way home from the remote work camps. Many of the them were from China and, happily, a proportion chose to settle in western Canada. In 1885, Canada’s population is estimated to have been 4,500,000, with a total workforce of 1,500,000, most of whom were likely farm workers. The scale of the changes to the national workforce resulting from the completion of the railway was significant, considering the direct, indirect, and induced employment that suddenly became redundant.

Canada’s 21st century economy is, of course, much larger, more diverse, and more dynamic. Apart from recessions and booms, there are relatively few events large enough to disrupt labour markets. There are, however, long-term trends that are monitored continuously. When fluctuations in those trends combine with short-term shocks they can disrupt the orderly functioning of labour markets.

In a recent study, the Royal Bank stated “Canada’s labour market is experiencing a fundamental structural shift as population growth pauses after unprecedented acceleration in recent years.” The report highlighted the country’s aging population and its recent immigration policies. Put simply, baby boomers are retiring. The relatively open federal immigration policy of the last decade has helped to dampen the effect of an aging workforce. Although, that policy has been blamed partly for increased housing costs and a strain on public services.

When these underlying trends are combined with current shocks to the system, it is difficult to forecast what they will mean for Canadian workers now and in the future. The rapidly changing circumstances have been generated from a variety of sources. The federal government is encouraging multiple infrastructure projects in its efforts to “build Canada”.  Individuals, businesses, and industries are increasingly relying on electricity in their daily lives, business functions, as well as manufacturing and service operations. The abrupt change in the conditions for international trade, and especially the country’s relationship with the US, will have employment impacts on more than just the trade-exposed industries. At the same time, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become more powerful and has begun to supplant employment in certain functions. On the other hand, we need to keep in mind that past introduction of some revolutionary technologies has resulted in expanded employment, as workers become significantly more productive and, therefore, more valuable. At this point, we do not have a clear view of what the net effect of all these influences will be on labour markets.

Canada’s energy sector depends heavily upon the quality and abundance of the skills and expertise of energy workers. In the normal course of events, labour markets ensure that demand and supply adjust to the evolution of the business environment. However, shocks to the economy have the potential to strain those mechanisms. All of the actors in the energy sector, and associated industries, will have to anticipate fast-moving changes in circumstances and be prepared to respond quickly. Throughout history, the strength of the Canadian workforce has allowed us to develop and put in operation world-class projects of impressive size and complexity. We must ensure that capacity continues to be available to meet tomorrow’s requirements.